Wesley here to save the day

Pats added Dante Wesley pictured above to add to the CB depth. I'm glad there's a little more depth but I won't count on him to do much right away. They also added Marcellus Rivers, probably to play some time in Tampa because the TE spot is unreasonably thin with Watson and Brady out right now, the only TE's were Garrett Mills and Matt Kranchick before the signing of Rivers who sounds like a mediocre journeyman.

P.S. does Wesley look like an elite athlete or what? He's entirely ripped (no homo).

Fantasy QB Rankings 1-10

After ranking the RB's in terms of expected fantasy output last week I thought I'd start on the QB's this week. This time though I'll make it a three-part affair so as to provide rationale or commentary for each choice. Again, these are subject to change significantly within a few weeks. Without further ado:

1. Peyton Manning: The most consistent player in fantasy leagues. He's already been the best statistical quarterback in the league, and given my analysis of the colts' defense this year, Manning may find himself trailing more than usual and his production could actually increase (if that's possible.) The maturation of Addai and the addition of Anthony Gonzalez should help - clear cut #1 here is Manning.

2. Carson Palmer: This is kind of a tough spot, because there are a few QB's you could slot in here, but given that I think their production will be roughly the same, I'm going with Palmer because I feel he's the safest pick. He's reached a level of consistency where he's automatic to have a better than 2:1 TD-INT ratio and exceed 3500 yards with 25 TD's. I consider that a worst case scenario (assuming he's healthy) whereas the best case is something like 36 TD 10 INT 4300 yds. He is in his prime and his weapons are still in their primes, expect him to have a good year.

3. Drew Brees: I'm a little less confident with this choice because it's not a lock that Brees has a year like he did last year, given that guys like Colston could regress. Still though the playcalling down in New Orleans is great, he still has a great pair of RB's to work with and the wide recievers should still be good if not great with the addition of meachem.

4. Marc Bulger: I didn't really appreciate how good Bulger was until I looked at his stats. He has been putting up consistently very good numbers, and I don't see it stopping this year. At 30 he is in his prime, with a top 3 RB to work with and a very able set of wideouts led by Holt and bolstered by the addition of Bennett.

5. Tom Brady: Debated putting him ahead of Bulger, but I think Bulger is safer at 4. Brady has the potential this year to be all the way at #2 if Moss and Stallworth stay healthy the whole year and perform up to their potential. Brady would have two of the best deep threats in the game and I'd imagine would rack up a ton of TD's with elite end-zone threats in Moss, Watson, Stallworth. However, there's a risk factor with those guys, Moss could be old and Stallworth could be injured. Even if they are Brady's a safe bet to put up good numbers, and I don't think you could let him slip past this spot.

6. Donovan Mcnabb: No clear-cut choice in my mind here. However, Mcnabb put up the 9th best production last year....in only 10 games! He was on pace for over 4200 yds passing before a knee injury derailed him. This year I expect his mobility to be hindered, but he should be due for a healthy season and I expect him to be in the 3800-4000 yd range. Losing stallworth hurt a little bit, but the eagles' coordinating is great, and you still have brown and westbrook at the very least.

7. Phillip Rivers: Phil was in the top 10 in production last season, all while being "managed" by schottenheimer and Cam Cameron. Although he's a 2nd year starter he's a 4th year QB and I expect him to have even more of a breakout year. Although Norv Turner like to run in the red zone, he should turn Rivers loose more than Schottenheimer did. We already know about LT and Antonio Gates, but Eric Parker is very underrated and Craig Davis has the potential to be a real asset to Rivers. I'd feel very confident taking him in this spot.

8. Ben Roethlisberger: If you feel this defies logic, good for you. Call it a hunch, but I think Ben and the Steelers will be back with a vengance this season. Hines Ward should be as good as ever, and I see Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Willie Parker all on a serious upswing. From what I've heard the new OC is partial to opening things up for Ben, which should mean more production. If a very good 3rd option at WR develops this year, look out for the Steelers. I'm aware they'll still run a lot, but I see ben getting a lot of production out of the deep ball, as well as the fact that Parker can really RAC on short dump offs and screens. I see the steelers scoring a lot of touchdowns this year. It's pretty much a make or break year for Roethlisberger, and although he's no lock - I'd bet on him.

9. Jon Kitna: Again, probably seems like a wild pick. What you need to realize is that INT's just don't penalize you much, and we know that Kitna is going to be throwing the ball like it's going out of style. The Lions will trail early and late and Kitna will be airing it out big time. He was already in the top 10 in terms of fantasy production last year, and now you add Calvin Johnson to the mix? Kitna may not have to do much besides let it rip and let Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson track it down. This pick has high bust potential because Kitna could be replaced if the Lions struggle, but I still think he has value at #9.

10. Vince Young: He didn't even start the first couple games and still ended up at #11 in production. While at first I thought that Young's loss of weapons such as Bennett and Henry would hinder him, I realized that it could actually cause his fantasy production to increase. I'm sure the Titans will still try to run a fair amount, but probably to little avail. The titans are likely to be in a lot of 3rd down situations, and a lot of "come from behind" situations late. This should mean a lot of passing plays for Young, and hopefully if you're a fantasy owner a lot of scrambling. Let's be honest, even if VY develops as a passer this year, he's not going to be throwing a boatload of TD's. What I'd hope for and expect is that VY will have to take care of things himself, which should entail a lot of scrambling and therefore points. Injury risk is a major concern so again I wouldn't feel safe taking him here, if he fell to 15 or so I'd snap him up in a hurry. Still I don't think there's anyone at this spot with more potential.

Historically Worst?

Before Colts fans get riled up by this post - you won the super bowl last year, so relax. So the Colts last year has a historically bad run defense, and we know that they magically ratcheted up their level of play in the playoffs to the point where they really shut down the chiefs and ravens (patriots not so much). So, I guess it's fair to contend that that their very poor run defense during the season didn't matter. Still, it's not something I'd be excited about, and I would sure as hell want it fixed. Only it doesn't look like it'll be fixed, it looks like it'll be worse. You never know how players will gel and how a defense will play together, but let's think about what happened to some of the Colts run-stoppers. Cato June = gone. Corey Simon = released. Booger McFarland = out for the year. Hmm......smells like a miserable defense to me. What I really hope happen is that the colts are forced to put 8 in the box and their secondary really gets torched (Nick Harper gone, Bob Sanders on the PUP list). It could be a real joy to watch jacksonville play them again as Fred Taylor, MJD and Greg Jones waltz into the end zone untouched all day. Maybe Dwight Freeney and his 72 million can stop the run......oh wait Freeney has never been good against the run in the first place.

Let's See : New Orleans, Jax (twice), New England, Denver, San Diego, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City etc. Sounds like a whole boatload of rushing yards. I can't even conceptualize what LT will do to that pathetic run defense of the Colts, 300 yards is not out of the question. For the Colts to get to 12-13 wins again their offense is going to have to be better than ever. That is all.

Fantasy RB Rankings

Before I unveil these very early rankings, let me say a few words. First of all, these are subject to change greatly over the next 4 weeks as I do some research, watch preseason etc. Second, you may feel like there are some obvious omissions here, thats because i'm basing this more on risk (or lack there of) than potential. What that means is that I may rank a guy like jamal lewis who sucks but will get a lot of carries ahead of someone like jerious norwood who would produce at a much higher clip if he gets a lot of carries, but we don't know that he will. You might wonder why Cedric Benson is somewhat low consider I wrote the other day that he could go for 1500 yards. Well, he could also be a total flop - and I'm not willing to take that risk as a fantasy owner picking in the top 10. In the 10-20 range, I'm more willing. I rank down someone down like Fred Taylor or Warrick Dunn who is an aging injury concern. Given the statement I just made, you may wonder why Shaun Alexander is so high. That's a topic for another column, so i'll go ahead and let these rankings rip roar their way down the page.

1. LT

2. Steven Jackson

3. Frank Gore

4. Willie Parker

5. Shaun Alexander

6. Reggie Bush

7. Larry Johnson

8. Brian Westbrook

9. Travis Henry

10. Joseph Addai

11. Clinton Portis

12. Rudi Johnson

13. Edgerrin James

14. Cedric Benson

15. Laurence Maroney

16. Thomas Jones

17. Willis McGahee

18. Ronnie Brown

19. Deuce Mcallister

20. Chester Taylor

21. Brandon Jacobs

22. Maurice Jones-Drew

23. Marion Barber III

24. Jamal Lewis

25. Marshawn Lynch

26. Tatum Bell

27. ladell betts

28. Adrian Peterson

29. Fred Taylor

30. Jerious Norwood

Pittsburgh Steelers

I'm going to be an optimist and say I feel the steelers at full health should go 11-5 this year with losses at Baltimore, at New England, home against Seattle and Cincinnatti and at the New York Jets. Yes that means I'm giving them away wins At Denver, St. Louis and Cincinatti. With that record they should be the 3/4 seed for the playoffs. On another note, I wasn't really aware Willie Parker rushed for 1494 yards last season, at 4.4 clip. With the atrocious play of Ben Roethlisberger last year, that's pretty impressive. Given that Parker is 26 (prime) it's not out of the question that he could exceed 1600 yards this season, but I'm not sure we know exactly what Tomlin's philosophy is as far as run/pass.

Brady Quinn Needs to Grow Up

Brady Quinn thinks he should have been a top 3 pick, so he should be paid like a top 3 pick. Guess what Brady, you were picked 22nd. Now, it could be Quinn's agent convincing him to hold out - but if it's all the agent I would assume Quinn would be telling him, "Get a deal done so I can get to camp." The Browns did not pick Quinn at 22 to pay him like a top 3 or top 5 pick, they picked him at 22 to pay him what that slot deserves. It's just mind-boggling that Quinn and his agent think this is a great strategy. The longer Quinn holds out, the less chance he has of getting a starting job. If he doesn't get a starting job soon, and starts things off on the wrong foot with the Browns, whats his NEXT contract going to look like? Quinn needs to accept that he was the 22nd player taken, take his salary of about 15 million or so for 5 years, get to camp - win the starting job, and prove that he's worth the big bucks. If he did this, he would be plenty rich in a couple years. It's almost like this hold out says "I'm probably not going to get to a next big contract because I suck, so I need to cash in before everyone finds out I'm a bad Quarterback." The pathetic part is that the Browns QB job is totally open and there for the taking, but Quinn wants to insist that he be paid like the top pick he wasn't instead of going out there and earning it. If I was Brady Quinn's teammate I'd hate him already.

The New-Look Bears

John Clayton wrote an article today after visiting Bears camp and I'm assuming he didn't dictate the story because his mouth is definitely full of bear globes. Joking aside, as one sided as the article kind of was, I'm basically with Clayton here. A lot of people are down on the bears, saying with a tougher schedule they're going to be much worse, some even bold enough to predict that Chicago misses the playoffs. I really don't agree, I still think Chicago is #1 in the NFC, albeit with Dallas and New Orleans close behind. Here are a few reasons why:

1. Cedric Benson - I have only my viewing experience and my review of stats, but personally I think Thomas Jones is very overrated. The guy averaged about 4.1 per carry his last three years in Chicago, and has a number of sub 4 seasons for his career. Don't get me wrong, he's a "nice" back, and I think he'll be great in NY as a platoon guy. However, Ced Benson is the real deal. Skeptics will point out he too only averaged 4.1 last year, fair point. Numbers aside though, I just think Benson has much better potential than Jones as a feature back, he has a better combo of speed and power and more potential to break long runs than jones did. Benson won't even turn 25 until the end of the year, it was the right move to dump Jones and begin the Benson era. With an improved passing attack (I'll address this below) I see Benson as more like a 4.5 YPC guy, who could be due for a breakout year somewhere between 1300-1700 yards and a number of touchdowns.

2. The Bears Defense - It just really didn't get much worse over the course of the offseason. The bears wisely re-signed vasher and got Briggs to sign his one year tender. Even if they take a slight dip they'll be a top 10 defense in the NFL, and I think what losses they've had may be offset by experience gained.

3. The Passing attack - Look, first of all the Bears passing game couldn't get any worse, it's virtually impossible. Watching Rex Grossman play Quarter Back last year I felt some strange mix (as a non bears fan) of horrified, thoroughly amused, and sorry for Rex. This year, I don't think it's going to be the same story. I'm basing this mostly off of Clayton's article, but I think the difference is the number of weapons. All of a sudden the Bears have two above average recieving Tight Ends, Clark and Olsen. In addition they have an improved recieving corps, as Berrian is starting to break out and should only improve, and then you add Devin Hester to the mix who is sure to draw attention, and have the ability to turn a short dump off into a big gain. Thirdly, the running game should be as good or better as I stated earlier. Lastly, it just seems impossible that Rex won't improve, he really has nowhere to go but up. If he just learns to pick his spots with the deep ball to berrian, and then effectively dump off to backs, tight ends, and hester - his completion percentage and rating should really improve. I'm going to throw out a bold prediction: Rex Grossman will be a better Quarterback than Tony Romo in 2007.

As strange as it sounds to say, I'm really looking forward to watching the Bears offense in action, especially to see how Greg Olsen, Garret Wolfe, and Devin Hester fit in. Could the Bears be back in the Super Bowl next season? I'd bet on it.